Is Divorce Predictable among Iranian Couples?


  • Gholamhosein Shahraki
  • Zahra Sedaghat
  • Mohammad Fararouei
  • Zibaneh Tabeshfar



Divorce is considered as an important social and public health concern worldwide. The aim of this study was to identify divorce’s social and economic contributors among Iranian couples. This case-control study was conducted on 60 divorced and their neighboring 64 still-married couples with approximately the same date of marriage. The required information was obtained from consultant administrated forms which are used routinely by Iranian family consulting centers. An interview-administered questionnaire with almost the same structure and questions was used to obtain information from still-married couples. Based on the results of multivariable analysis and (stepwise) selection of the study variables, significant associations between divorce and employment of both husbands and wives, education of husband, and the couple’s accommodation statuses were found. Accordingly, wife's (OR unemployed/self-employed=4.97, 95%CI: 1.38-21.61, P=0.001) and husband's (OR unemployed/self-employed =17.45, 95%CI: 3.56-123.98, P=0.001) unemployment, less educated husband's (OR primary or secondary/higher education =23.98, 95%CI=4.04-237.05, p=0.001) and couples with shared accommodation (OR dependent/independent= 5.99, 95%CI=2.54-17.72, P<0.001) were at higher risk of divorce. ROC analysis suggested that divorce can be confidently predicted by the above factors (AUC=0.882 95%CI: 0.816-0.948) with 66.7% sensitivity and 92.6% specificity. This study introduced several predictors, which can be used by family consultants and psychologists to recognize high risk marrying or married couples to prevent divorce and to help couples to obtain and sustain healthier marriages and stronger family relationships.