Population forecasting in Canada: conceptual and methodological developments

M. V. George


After introducing the value and interest in population forecasting, the thrust of the paper is on conceptual issues and methodological developments in population forecasting. It provides an historical overview of population projections by Statistics Canada and is presented for the periods before and after the 1970s, covering a seventy-year history. The evolution of the current regional cohort component projection model is articulated by describing the methodological developments by components in each of the six sets of population projections from the 1970s to the beginning of the new century. Also presented is a brief account of the main special/customized projections prepared. Finally, the paper provides a brief evaluation of the accuracy of selected past projections.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25336/P64S4P


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