Evaluation of projections of populations for the aboriginal identity groups in Canada, 1996-2001

Ravi B. P. Verma


The population projections for the Aboriginal identity groups (North American
Indians, Métis and Inuit) by age and sex from 1996 to 2001 were developed at
the Canada level, using the cohort-component method. The purpose of this paper is to compare and analyze the error of closure between the projected 2001 and adjusted 2001 population counts due to net census undercounts. It is observed that the error of closure for the 2001 projected Aboriginal population based on the 1996 adjusted census population seems to be lower by 7% over the 2001 Census adjusted Aboriginal population. In contrast, the projected populations for North American Indians and Inuit are lower by -0.20% and -2.73%. However, for the Métis the error of closure is extremely high, at -24.84%. Reasons for the higher error of closure for the Métis such as the effects of intra-generational ethnic mobility will be discussed in the paper.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25336/P6PC81


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